In their new residential report released today, Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015, BIS-Shrapnel forecast diverging residential markets by State:
They say, inter alia:
“After two years of price declines in 2010 and 2011, leading property industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Shrapnel, says that the fundamentals are beginning to favour an improvement in residential market conditions. However, that improvement will not be uniform across the states, with New South Wales and the resource states of Western Australia, Queensland, and Northern Territory beginning to show signs of recovery, while conditions in the remaining non-resource states will continue to be dampened by underperforming economies and an excess supply.
The stars are beginning to align for New South Wales, where there is a substantial dwelling deficiency already in place; and in the resource states, where weak dwelling commencements in recent years and accelerating population growth are now seeing a rising dwelling deficiency emerge.
In contrast, conditions in the other non-resource states (Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and Australian Capital Territory) are forecast to continue to be tough. These states all had the strongest bounce in construction after the Global Financial Crisis, with the result being an erosion of their dwelling deficiency and/or an emerging excess of dwelling stock.”